BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez...who wins & why?

It seems like everytime BJ fights its his toughest challenger yet. Kenny Florian has come a long way from being the skinny little nobody on TUF 1. But like I always said about him, he can dominate almost anyone in his weight cl, but he always chokes on the big stage. He proved me right for the 3rd time. Now comes Diego, who interestingly beat Kenny to win TUF 1. He too has come a long way & improved greatly. And him & Kenny fought at middleweight in TUF. Thats 30 lbs difference. So heres what to consider in this fight I think. Diego has great takedowns & great ground & pound, but BJ has some of the best takedown defense in MMA. And if it were to go to the ground BJ's BJJ far outcles Diegos. So Diego could be in trouble even if it goes to the ground. On the feet, again, even though Diego has become a very good striker, BJ has an edge in boxing as well. And his chin is proven...when he does get punched. So thats 2 ways BJ has an edge in my opinion. That leaves cardio. Even though BJ has recently been doing more cardio & making a committment to being in the best shape possible, I still think Diego has a very good advantage in that area. So Diegos gameplan should be similar to Kenny's in that he should try to press the action & take BJ down. When hes on the ground he needs to stay active & avoid submissions. Tall order I know. Do I think he can pull it off? The answer is, no. He might have more success with takedowns than Florian had, but I see BJ being able to get back up or throwing a fast submission on. I dont think this fight will see rounds 4 or 5. But I do see a possible 3rd. BJ in the 3rd by triangle choke.